How the model works

How the First-Half Goal Model Works

First Half Score combines pre-match soccer data with its own modeling, qualification and calibration process. Every forecast is generated before kickoff and shown unchanged from that point on.

Pre-match inputs

The model reads information available before kickoff, including recent first-half scoring and conceding form, matchup conditions, shot activity and pre-match expected goals. The match result is never an input to the forecast shown before the match.

First half over 1.5 and over 2.5 percentages

The FH over 1.5 percentage estimates the probability of at least two goals before halftime; the FH over 2.5 percentage estimates the probability of at least three. Both are model estimates, calibrated against historical match outcomes.

Production selections

A percentage on its own is not a selection. A colored O1.5 or O2.5 selection appears only when a match also passes the active production rules, applied consistently across the slate. Sometimes the honest output is that nothing qualifies.

Team-goal signals

The team 1+, 2+ and 3+ figures show historical hit rates for teams that met particular qualifying conditions. They indicate how frequently comparable setups produced at least one, two or three first-half team goals, not an exact halftime score.

Frozen forecasts

The prediction displayed before kickoff is preserved unchanged. What you see on a match before it starts is what stays on the card afterwards: nothing is revised once the result is known.

Principles

• Predictions are generated before kickoff.
• Qualification rules are applied consistently.
• Displayed forecasts remain frozen once shown.

First Half Score is a research and information tool. Predictions and historical hit rates are provided for informational purposes only and are not financial, investment, or betting advice. Outcomes are uncertain and no figure guarantees a result. Intended for users 18+.